You've written a lot in this article that I have often thought about myself, but I haven’t yet been able to express in such a structured way.
You also make some excellent points. For example, how too many people waste energy on things over which they have little or no control, and which, in turn, often only have a peripheral impact on them. The examples you provided are very fitting as well.
I’m already looking forward to the second part. Subbed.
"Note that I have calibrated my calculations on my life and the real world things I can achieve." Well said. We'd be much better off spending time on things we can achieve than trying to unravel things we can never know.
Listening to your wonderful dialect and delivery is, in my estimation, a far better experience than my reading the essay. Your work is such a breath of fresh air. A mere "Thank You" seems insufficient because you provide this without a paywall which is a huge blessing for me as my continued recovery efforts from devastating illness would deny my access to your stream of astonishingly brilliant thought. I enjoy your work a great deal and will at least share as much as I'm able.
OMG! We can’t govern ourselves. Sorry this is proof.
This analysis is brilliant and in my judgement spot on. Unfortunately it proves that the methodology of human logic - our hardwired psychology and intelligence - is so multifaceted and multi-variant that there is zero chance, no hope (!), for rolling this out on a societal level.
We cannot govern ourselves. We are only capable of harvesting and then deploying power; correctness is not available by way of consensus, it is far too complex to be even minimally achievable at scale. As a consequence, all narrative about correctness, the good, the honest, the beneficial, all narrative is NOTHING but a battle space.
We are overclocked chimps and our fate is mismanagement resolving into kinetic action.
You're right - most people can't/won't adopt systematic methods of thought - but that in my mind is an argument for virtuous hierarchy, wherein the capable are the ones doing the leading.
The problems I see with your virtuous hierarchy include who defines virtuous and what keeps them virtuous. Historically Wise King Walt is often succeeded by Mild Milt and sooner or later Crazy Caligula's atop the throne. Power corrupts, even if it ain't absolute.
I find that I lean toward Anarcho-Capitalism (Having re-defined such to my satisfaction roughly as unregulated exchange of ideas, etc. as well as goods based on fair or at least acceptable returns among the parties involved.), -not to define, delimit nor replace whatsoever is the day's economic and social order but as a suitable philosophy for prospering within the cracks of whatever powers rule today as well as those on top tomorrow.
Wow this quote is sooo important! "It is important that a break from consensus does not become a break from truth." So many people today should remember this. Because it is so tempting to do the opposite.
It certainly seems that many folks spend way too much energy chasing down theories which, even if they hold the correct opinion, offer very little in terms of tangible benefit. They and the people in their circle where they exercise the most significant influence would be better served by building and pursuing things which actually bear out positive returns on investment
Control is a spook That's the grand epistemic paradox. The more you know, the greater your knowledge of your own ignorance expands, such that, we eventually near a calculus limit of complete ignorance
You want to be a true dissident? Live in a barrel and read poetry. The Julio-Claudians are no more. The Medicis are no more. And so will the legacy you build with blood and sweat and heartache be scattered to every point on the compass rose.
A good Christian reads Solomon not to despair but to understand that God made fools to break the wise and God leveled the tower for a reason. The left will destroy themselves entirely by their own devices
Excellent! Thank you for this - you put into words much that I’ve sensed but not formalized.
The discussion of probabilistic thinking is especially good. I had some statistics way back when so I am familiar with calculating an expected value. You provide a simple introduction for anyone without that background.
I’m fond of the Lizard People conspiracy myself, but only for entertainment value, as it’s not actionable at all!
While it's almost a negative freeroll sharing this, I very much appreciate this kind of thinking being an ex-pro myself (a fairly average one who made a decent living for 7 years). EV is a very useful concept for making one's decisions in life, even outside of poker itself. Almost everyone I know in the scene, ex-pros and current pros alike, does this. They know full well the usefulness of this kind of decision-making and wield it as a heuristic most people don't possess.
Looking forward to seeing how you're going to reframe all this in the context of conspiracy and politics the most, though.
AHAHAHAHA 👏 FABULOUS 👌 There aren't any rules except "don't get caught". Keep a joker up your sleeve, loaded. 😉 Always look at their cards. Play for keeps. It ain't a game 😑
Your article reminds me of a snippet from a video I watched of Eric Weinstein encouraging the idea of “responsible conspiracy theorizing”. A casual glance of history shows that governments, businesses, individuals have aways had a covert operations in the shadows, for better or worse. Great work in taking the first step in being proactive of where we should put our energies in our search for truth!
You've written a lot in this article that I have often thought about myself, but I haven’t yet been able to express in such a structured way.
You also make some excellent points. For example, how too many people waste energy on things over which they have little or no control, and which, in turn, often only have a peripheral impact on them. The examples you provided are very fitting as well.
I’m already looking forward to the second part. Subbed.
Thank you! Glad to hear it Zeitenwandel.
"Note that I have calibrated my calculations on my life and the real world things I can achieve." Well said. We'd be much better off spending time on things we can achieve than trying to unravel things we can never know.
Yes. Or at least - if we’re pursuing conspiracies for entertainment - we should be explicit about that, and limit our time investment accordingly
"...a hostile information environment..."
Boy, was THAT an understatement!
Haha
Listening to your wonderful dialect and delivery is, in my estimation, a far better experience than my reading the essay. Your work is such a breath of fresh air. A mere "Thank You" seems insufficient because you provide this without a paywall which is a huge blessing for me as my continued recovery efforts from devastating illness would deny my access to your stream of astonishingly brilliant thought. I enjoy your work a great deal and will at least share as much as I'm able.
Thank you. Hope your recovery proceeds well.
OMG! We can’t govern ourselves. Sorry this is proof.
This analysis is brilliant and in my judgement spot on. Unfortunately it proves that the methodology of human logic - our hardwired psychology and intelligence - is so multifaceted and multi-variant that there is zero chance, no hope (!), for rolling this out on a societal level.
We cannot govern ourselves. We are only capable of harvesting and then deploying power; correctness is not available by way of consensus, it is far too complex to be even minimally achievable at scale. As a consequence, all narrative about correctness, the good, the honest, the beneficial, all narrative is NOTHING but a battle space.
We are overclocked chimps and our fate is mismanagement resolving into kinetic action.
Bummer.
You're right - most people can't/won't adopt systematic methods of thought - but that in my mind is an argument for virtuous hierarchy, wherein the capable are the ones doing the leading.
The problems I see with your virtuous hierarchy include who defines virtuous and what keeps them virtuous. Historically Wise King Walt is often succeeded by Mild Milt and sooner or later Crazy Caligula's atop the throne. Power corrupts, even if it ain't absolute.
I find that I lean toward Anarcho-Capitalism (Having re-defined such to my satisfaction roughly as unregulated exchange of ideas, etc. as well as goods based on fair or at least acceptable returns among the parties involved.), -not to define, delimit nor replace whatsoever is the day's economic and social order but as a suitable philosophy for prospering within the cracks of whatever powers rule today as well as those on top tomorrow.
Wow this quote is sooo important! "It is important that a break from consensus does not become a break from truth." So many people today should remember this. Because it is so tempting to do the opposite.
Excellent as always. Thank you for sharing this.
It certainly seems that many folks spend way too much energy chasing down theories which, even if they hold the correct opinion, offer very little in terms of tangible benefit. They and the people in their circle where they exercise the most significant influence would be better served by building and pursuing things which actually bear out positive returns on investment
Control is a spook That's the grand epistemic paradox. The more you know, the greater your knowledge of your own ignorance expands, such that, we eventually near a calculus limit of complete ignorance
You want to be a true dissident? Live in a barrel and read poetry. The Julio-Claudians are no more. The Medicis are no more. And so will the legacy you build with blood and sweat and heartache be scattered to every point on the compass rose.
A good Christian reads Solomon not to despair but to understand that God made fools to break the wise and God leveled the tower for a reason. The left will destroy themselves entirely by their own devices
The meek shall inherit the earth
Excellent! Thank you for this - you put into words much that I’ve sensed but not formalized.
The discussion of probabilistic thinking is especially good. I had some statistics way back when so I am familiar with calculating an expected value. You provide a simple introduction for anyone without that background.
I’m fond of the Lizard People conspiracy myself, but only for entertainment value, as it’s not actionable at all!
My husband says that he pays attention to the “is Michelle Obama a man” conspiracy theory because it brings him joy.
Thank you for your writing I am enjoying!
While it's almost a negative freeroll sharing this, I very much appreciate this kind of thinking being an ex-pro myself (a fairly average one who made a decent living for 7 years). EV is a very useful concept for making one's decisions in life, even outside of poker itself. Almost everyone I know in the scene, ex-pros and current pros alike, does this. They know full well the usefulness of this kind of decision-making and wield it as a heuristic most people don't possess.
Looking forward to seeing how you're going to reframe all this in the context of conspiracy and politics the most, though.
Nuanced, engaging poast.
Too much work. The highest payoff for the least work is not to play.
That’s the spirit
AHAHAHAHA 👏 FABULOUS 👌 There aren't any rules except "don't get caught". Keep a joker up your sleeve, loaded. 😉 Always look at their cards. Play for keeps. It ain't a game 😑
Your article reminds me of a snippet from a video I watched of Eric Weinstein encouraging the idea of “responsible conspiracy theorizing”. A casual glance of history shows that governments, businesses, individuals have aways had a covert operations in the shadows, for better or worse. Great work in taking the first step in being proactive of where we should put our energies in our search for truth!